tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-47426803494976612772024-03-13T18:15:02.144+01:00EARTH ECONOMICSEarth economics studies the economy of our planet from the perspective of an autarkic system (a “closed economy”). It ignores the constituent national and regional parts of the planet economy and focuses on the whole. The book respects the heritages of IS/LM (Keynes) and neoclassical growth (Solow) not out of economic respect but because these tools are very useful in understanding the crisis and the policy response to that crisis.peter van bergeijkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12443284253584365764noreply@blogger.comBlogger63125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4742680349497661277.post-80538252118398280092019-02-12T08:31:00.002+01:002019-02-12T08:31:58.025+01:00global economic activity<br />
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<span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9.0pt;"><a href="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3319772&partid=1193585&did=417654&eid=957718" target="new"><b><span style="border: solid #BFD0E9 1.0pt; color: #003366; mso-border-alt: solid #BFD0E9 .25pt; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">"Measuring
Global Real Economic Activity: Do Recent Critiques Hold Up to Scrutiny?"</span></b></a> <img alt="Fee Download" border="0" id="_x0000_i1025" src="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/Images/fee_pdf.gif" /> <br />
<a href="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/PIP_Journal.cfm?pip_jrnl=223793&partid=1193585&did=417654&eid=957718" target="pipInfo"><i><span style="color: #003366; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP13455</span></i></a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9.0pt;"><a href="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=50236&partid=1193585&did=417654&eid=957718" target="new"><!-- end title plus citation --><b><span style="color: #003366; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">LUTZ KILIAN</span></b></a>, </span><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 7.5pt;">University of Michigan
at Ann Arbor - Department of Economics, Centre for Economic Policy Research
(CEPR)</span><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9.0pt;"><br />
</span><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 7.5pt;">Email: <a href="mailto:lkilian@umich.edu"><span style="color: #003366; font-size: 9.0pt; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">lkilian@umich.edu</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9.0pt;">Hamilton
(2018) suggests that the Kilian (2009) index of global real economic activity
is misleading and calls for alternative measures. The problem documented by
Hamilton is a consequence of a coding mistake. Specifically, the index of
nominal freight rates underlying the Kilian index was accidentally logged
twice. Once this coding error is corrected by removing one of the log
transformations, none of the concerns raised by Hamilton remains valid and the
index may be used as originally intended. Moreover, it can be shown that the
corrected index differs only slightly from the original index and that the key
empirical results in Kilian (2009) and related studies remain unchanged when
replacing the index. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />peter van bergeijkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12443284253584365764noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4742680349497661277.post-71388139017919354752018-11-01T09:21:00.000+01:002018-11-01T09:21:00.440+01:00Global Thrift Paradox<br />
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<span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9.0pt;"><a href="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3171162&partid=1193585&did=383043&eid=796427" target="new"><b><span style="border: solid #BFD0E9 1.0pt; color: #003366; mso-border-alt: solid #BFD0E9 .25pt; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">"The
Paradox of Global Thrift"</span></b></a> <img alt="Fee Download" border="0" id="_x0000_i1025" src="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/Images/fee_pdf.gif" /> <br />
<a href="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/PIP_Journal.cfm?pip_jrnl=223793&partid=1193585&did=383043&eid=796427" target="pipInfo"><i><span style="color: #003366; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP12894</span></i></a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9.0pt;"><a href="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=2224857&partid=1193585&did=383043&eid=796427" target="new"><!-- end title plus citation --><b><span style="color: #003366; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">LUCA FORNARO</span></b></a>, </span><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 7.5pt;">Universitat Pompeu
Fabra - Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI), Barcelona Graduate
School of Economics (Barcelona GSE)</span><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9.0pt;"><br />
</span><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 7.5pt;">Email: <a href="mailto:lfornaro@crei.cat"><span style="color: #003366; font-size: 9.0pt; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">lfornaro@crei.cat</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9.0pt;"><br />
<a href="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=1820117&partid=1193585&did=383043&eid=796427" target="new"><b><span style="color: #003366; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">FEDERICA ROMEI</span></b></a>, </span><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 7.5pt;">LUISS Guido Carli University</span><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9.0pt;"><br />
</span><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 7.5pt;">Email: <a href="mailto:fromei@luiss.it"><span style="color: #003366; font-size: 9.0pt; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">fromei@luiss.it</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9.0pt;">This
paper describes a paradox of global thrift. Consider a world in which interest
rates are low and monetary policy cannot stabilize the economy because it is
frequently constrained by the zero lower bound. Now imagine that governments
complement monetary policy with prudential financial and fiscal policies,
because they perceive that limiting private and public borrowing during booms
will help stabilize the economy by reducing the risk of financial crises and by
creating space for fiscal interventions during busts. We show that these
policies, while effective from the perspective of individual countries, might
backfire if applied on a global scale. In a financially integrated world, in
fact, prudential policies generate a rise in the global supply of savings, or
equivalently a drop in global aggregate demand. In turn, weaker global
aggregate demand depresses output in countries whose monetary policy is
constrained by the zero lower bound. Due to this effect, the world might
paradoxically experience a fall in output and welfare following the
implementation of well-intended prudential policies. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />peter van bergeijkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12443284253584365764noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4742680349497661277.post-71918225905083515532018-03-23T17:53:00.002+01:002018-03-23T17:53:50.478+01:00Which criteria should a measure of global activity satisfy<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 11.25pt; margin-right: 11.25pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9.0pt;"><a href="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3103684&partid=1193585&did=369967&eid=1476123" target="new"><b><span style="border: 1pt solid rgb(191, 208, 233); color: #003366; padding: 0cm; text-decoration-line: none;">"Modeling
Fluctuations in the Global Demand for Commodities"</span></b></a> <img alt="Free Download" border="0" id="_x0000_i1025" src="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/Images/free_pdf.gif" /> <br />
<a href="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/PIP_Journal.cfm?pip_jrnl=254971&partid=1193585&did=369967&eid=1476123" target="pipInfo"><i><span style="color: #003366; text-decoration-line: none;">CESifo Working Paper Series No. 6749</span></i></a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9.0pt;"><a href="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=50236&partid=1193585&did=369967&eid=1476123" target="new"><!-- end title plus citation --><b><span style="color: #003366; text-decoration-line: none;">LUTZ KILIAN</span></b></a>, </span><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 7.5pt;">University of Michigan
at Ann Arbor - Department of Economics, Centre for Economic Policy Research
(CEPR)</span><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9.0pt;"><br />
</span><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 7.5pt;">Email: <a href="mailto:lkilian@umich.edu"><span style="color: #003366; font-size: 9pt; text-decoration-line: none;">lkilian@umich.edu</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9.0pt;"><br />
<a href="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=2094708&partid=1193585&did=369967&eid=1476123" target="new"><b><span style="color: #003366; text-decoration-line: none;">XIAOQING ZHOU</span></b></a>, </span><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 7.5pt;">Bank of Canada</span><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9.0pt;"><br />
</span><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 7.5pt;">Email: <a href="mailto:xzhou@bankofcanada.ca"><span style="color: #003366; font-size: 9pt; text-decoration-line: none;">xzhou@bankofcanada.ca</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9.0pt; mso-ansi-language: NL; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: NL; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">It is
widely understood that the real price of globally traded commodities is
determined by the forces of demand and supply. One of the main determinants of
the real price of commodities is shifts in the demand for commodities
associated with unexpected fluctuations in global real economic activity. There
have been numerous proposals for quantifying global real economic activity. We
discuss which criteria a measure of global real activity must satisfy to be
useful for modeling industrial commodity prices, we examine which of the many
alternative measures in the literature are most suitable for applied work, and
we explain why some popular measures are inappropriate for modeling commodity
prices. Given these insights, we reexamine in detail the question of whether
global real economic activity has declined since 2011 and by how much. Drawing
on a range of new evidence, we show that the global commodity price boom of the
2000s appears to have been largely transitory. Our analysis has important
implications for the design of structural models of commodity markets, for the
analysis of the transmission of commodity price shocks to commodity-importing
and exporting economies, and for commodity price forecasting. </span>peter van bergeijkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12443284253584365764noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4742680349497661277.post-65214710832868988912018-03-23T08:33:00.001+01:002018-03-23T08:33:11.797+01:00Global firms<br />
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<span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9.0pt;"><a href="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3139166&partid=1193585&did=376715&eid=470723" target="new"><b><span style="border: solid #BFD0E9 1.0pt; color: #003366; mso-border-alt: solid #BFD0E9 .25pt; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">"Tracking
the International Footprints of Global Firms"</span></b></a> <img alt="Free Download" border="0" id="_x0000_i1025" src="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/Images/free_pdf.gif" /> <br />
<a href="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/PIP_Journal.cfm?pip_jrnl=1464890&partid=1193585&did=376715&eid=470723" target="pipInfo"><i><span style="color: #003366; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">BIS Quarterly Review, March 2018</span></i></a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9.0pt;"><a href="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=1563990&partid=1193585&did=376715&eid=470723" target="new"><!-- end title plus citation --><b><span style="color: #003366; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">STEFAN AVDJIEV</span></b></a>, </span><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 7.5pt;">Bank for International
Settlements (BIS)</span><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9.0pt;"><br />
</span><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 7.5pt;">Email: <a href="mailto:stefan.avdjiev@bis.org"><span style="color: #003366; font-size: 9.0pt; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">stefan.avdjiev@bis.org</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9.0pt;"><br />
<a href="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=562810&partid=1193585&did=376715&eid=470723" target="new"><b><span style="color: #003366; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">MARY EVERETT</span></b></a>, </span><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 7.5pt;">Central Bank of Ireland</span><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9.0pt;"><br />
</span><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 7.5pt;">Email: <a href="mailto:mary.everett@centralbank.ie"><span style="color: #003366; font-size: 9.0pt; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">mary.everett@centralbank.ie</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9.0pt;"><br />
<a href="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=44514&partid=1193585&did=376715&eid=470723" target="new"><b><span style="color: #003366; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">PHILIP R. LANE</span></b></a>, </span><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 7.5pt;">Trinity College (Dublin) - Department of
Economics, Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), Central Bank of Ireland</span><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9.0pt;"><br />
</span><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 7.5pt;">Email: <a href="mailto:plane@tcd.ie"><span style="color: #003366; font-size: 9.0pt; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">plane@tcd.ie</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9.0pt;"><br />
<a href="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=15041&partid=1193585&did=376715&eid=470723" target="new"><b><span style="color: #003366; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">HYUN SONG SHIN</span></b></a>, </span><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 7.5pt;">Bank for International Settlements</span><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9.0pt;"><br />
</span><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 7.5pt;">Email: <a href="mailto:hyunsong.shin@bis.org"><span style="color: #003366; font-size: 9.0pt; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">hyunsong.shin@bis.org</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9.0pt;">As
the global economy becomes more integrated, there is a growing tension between
the nature of economic activity and the measurement system that attempts to
keep up with it. Many policies are still determined by measuring economic
activity at the national level. Since the typical unit of analysis is the
economic area (the “island”), economic activity is measured within the island
and in terms of transactions between islands. But, increasingly, companies and
their ownership are global, with economic activity taking place in a
geographically dispersed way. We analyse several important issues created by
this tension, show how they manifest themselves in the data and draw lessons
from them. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />peter van bergeijkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12443284253584365764noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4742680349497661277.post-9695760021619144372018-03-17T13:48:00.000+01:002018-03-17T13:48:22.810+01:00deglobalization 2.0<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-gl8703tXzuA/Wq0Oim0G9BI/AAAAAAAAGbg/gbbVlMNw6EYdSe_OiUJ_0m2qBsb9uH6vACLcBGAs/s1600/front.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="532" data-original-width="599" height="284" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-gl8703tXzuA/Wq0Oim0G9BI/AAAAAAAAGbg/gbbVlMNw6EYdSe_OiUJ_0m2qBsb9uH6vACLcBGAs/s320/front.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
Read this new <a href="https://issblog.nl/2018/03/13/deglobalisation-series-deglobalisation-2-0-trump-and-brexit-are-but-symptoms-by-peter-a-g-van-bergeijk/" target="_blank">series</a> of blogs. Does this make Earth Economics less valuable? No!peter van bergeijkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12443284253584365764noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4742680349497661277.post-78587708479106262172018-03-17T13:46:00.001+01:002018-03-17T13:46:05.542+01:00child mortality (global data starting 1860)A very useful <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-child-mortality-timeseries" target="_blank">website</a>peter van bergeijkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12443284253584365764noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4742680349497661277.post-63211976818578056672018-01-27T10:23:00.000+01:002018-01-27T10:23:48.965+01:00New data from the Maddison project<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-jhWdCP4e1Es/WmxD5SB3C_I/AAAAAAAAGTI/rdwlI9_lSKA4my4AArhoe1LrN9rYQwwcwCLcBGAs/s1600/maddison%2B1870%2B2016.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="710" data-original-width="1190" height="380" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-jhWdCP4e1Es/WmxD5SB3C_I/AAAAAAAAGTI/rdwlI9_lSKA4my4AArhoe1LrN9rYQwwcwCLcBGAs/s640/maddison%2B1870%2B2016.JPG" width="640" /></a></div>
New data are <a href="https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/historicaldevelopment/maddison/releases/maddison-project-database-2018" target="_blank">available</a> on Earth's per capita income. This project of Groningen University provides data for 169 countries and several world regions including World. The Maddison series provides estimates dating back to the year 1 AD. The series cgdppc is based on international comparisons of income levels; rgedpnapc (what's in a name) is based on growth rates according to National Accountspeter van bergeijkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12443284253584365764noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4742680349497661277.post-28084193902351650632017-12-14T08:01:00.005+01:002017-12-14T08:01:42.485+01:00World Inequality Report 2018<div align="center">
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<span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">Economic inequality is
widespread and has been growing since the 1980s, calling economic
growth policies around the world into question, according to new
research from the World Inequality Lab. The study findings are
detailed in <a href="http://r.pseconomics.mediactive.mx/track/click/fig8fgh3x1nd3d" target="_blank"><span style="color: #3499db;">the first World
Inequality Report</span></a>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.75pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<ul type="disc">
<li class="MsoNormal" style="color: #3c4858; line-height: 15.75pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; tab-stops: list 36.0pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">The full report is
available in English, but the 20-page summary is <strong>available in 8
languages</strong>: English, French, Spanish, German,
Russian, Arabic, Hindi and Chinese - <a href="http://r.pseconomics.mediactive.mx/track/click/fig8fgh6adnd3d" target="_blank"><span style="color: #3499db;">wir2018.wid.world</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></li>
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<span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">The research relies on <strong>the most extensive database
on the historical evolution of income and wealth inequality</strong>.
It aims to contribute to a more informed global democratic debate
on economic inequality by bringing the most up-to-date and
comprehensive data to the public discussion.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.75pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">The report was coordinated by
economists Facundo Alvaredo, Lucas Chancel, Thomas Piketty,
Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.75pt; text-align: right;">
<span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;"><br />
<strong>Thomas Piketty</strong>,
coordinator of the report, stressed:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.75pt; text-align: right;">
<em><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">"For
the first time ever, this report examines how global growth</span></em><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<em><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">has been
shared among individuals in the entire world since the 1980s,</span></em><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<em><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">with a
particular focus on emerging countries</span></em><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.75pt; text-align: right;">
<em><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">where
inequality data had previously been sparse or nonexistent."</span></em><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;"><br />
The primary research findings indicate that <strong>income inequality has
increased in nearly all world regions in recent decades, though at
different speeds, highlighting the important roles of governments
to mitigate inequality</strong>. Since 1980, income
inequality has increased rapidly in North America, China, India,
and Russia, while growing moderately in Europe. However, there are
exceptions to this pattern: in the Middle East, sub-Saharan Africa,
and Brazil, income inequality has remained relatively stable, at
extremely high levels.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<strong><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">Lucas
Chancel</span></strong><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">, general coordinator of the report, emphasized:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<em><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">"The
fact that inequality trends vary so greatly among countries,</span></em><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.75pt; text-align: right;">
<em><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">even when
countries share similar levels of development,</span></em><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.75pt; text-align: right;">
<em><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">highlights
the important role of national policies in shaping inequality.</span></em><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.75pt; text-align: right;">
<em><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">For
instance, consider China and India since 1980: China recorded </span></em><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<em><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">much
higher growth rates with significantly lowerinequality levels
than India. </span></em><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.75pt; text-align: right;">
<em><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">The
positive conclusion of the World Inequality Report is that
policy matters, a lot."</span></em><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;"><br />
The report also reveals <strong>the
dramatic decline in the net wealth of governments over the past
decades and the challenges this poses for tackling inequality</strong>.
Based on the data, the report discusses promising options to tackle
income and wealth inequality—starting with the importance of
economic data transparency.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<strong><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">Gabriel
Zucman</span></strong><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">, coordinator of the report, said:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<em><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">"The
establishment of a global financial registry to record the
ownership </span></em><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<em><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">of
financial assets would deal severe blows to tax evasion </span></em><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.75pt; text-align: right;">
<em><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">and money
laundering, and would enhance the effectiveness </span></em><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<em><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">of
progressive taxation, which is an essential tool in reducing
economic inequality."</span></em><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.75pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">The report stresses <strong>the need for more ambitious
policies to democratize access to education and well-paying jobs in
rich and emerging countries alike</strong>. Public investments
in health and environmental protection are also necessary to
empower younger generations. To finance these investments in the
future, capital taxes on the wealthiest or debt relief have
regularly been used by governments throughout history.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #096685; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 16.5pt;">Key
results of the report include the following</span><span style="color: #999999; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">- <strong>Strikingly, since 1980 the richest 1% captured
twice as much as the poorest 50% of the world's population</strong>.
In other terms, since 1980, 27% of all new income generated
worldwide were captured by the richest 1%, while the poorest 50% of
the world's population captured only 13% of total growth. These
figures are brought into sharp contrast considering the top 1%
currently represents 75 million individuals while the bottom 50%
represents 3.7 billion individuals. The population in between,
largely comprised of lower- and middle-income earners in North
America and Europe, experienced sluggish or even zero income growth
rates.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.75pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.75pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">- <strong>Since 1980 there have been
large shifts in the ownership of capital. Who owns this capital is
crucial in determining inequality</strong>. Net private
capital--the assets of individuals minus their debts--has risen
enormously in recent decades, but conversely, net public
capital--the assets of governments minus their debts--has declined
in nearly all countries since the 1980s due to large scale
privatizations and rising public debts. Public capital is now
approaching or below zero in rich countries. This exceptional
situation by historical standards has strong implications on
policy. In particular, it becomes extremely challenging for
governments to invest in education, healthcare or environmental
protection.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.75pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.75pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">- <strong>Wealth inequality among
individuals also increased sharply since 1980</strong>.
Significant increases in top wealth shares have been experienced in
China and Russia following their transitions from communism to more
capitalist economies. The top 1% wealth share doubled in both China
and Russia between 1995 and 2015, from 15% to 30% and from 22% to
43%, respectively.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.75pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.75pt; text-align: right;">
<strong><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">Emmanuel
Saez</span></strong><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">,
coordinator of the report, stressed: <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.75pt; text-align: right;">
<em><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">"The
combination of privatizations and increasing income inequality </span></em><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.75pt; text-align: right;">
<em><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">has fueled
the rise of wealth inequality—within countries and at the global
level, private capital is increasingly concentrated among a few
individuals. </span></em><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.75pt; text-align: right;">
<em><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">This rise
was extreme in the U.S., where the share of wealth </span></em><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div align="right" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.75pt; text-align: right;">
<em><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">held by
the top 1% rose from 22% in 1980 to 39% in 2014."</span></em><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.75pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">- <strong>Global income and wealth inequality will
steadily rise if countries continue to follow the same trajectory
they have been on since 1980, despite strong growth in emerging
countries</strong>. By 2050, the share of global wealth held
by the world's 0.1% richest (representing 7.5 million individuals
today) be equal to that of the middle class (3 billion
individuals).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 15.75pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
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<span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">- <strong>However, rising global
inequality is not inevitable in the future and limiting it will
have tremendous impacts on global poverty eradication</strong>.
If all countries follow the same inequality trend as Europe since
1980, the incomes of the bottom half of the world population could
rise from €3 100 in 2017 to €9 100 in 2050. Alternatively, if
countries were to follow the U.S. trend, the incomes of the bottom 50%
would rise to just €4 500 by 2050.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">The data presented in the report
combines in a systematic and transparent manner all available
economic data sources, including household surveys, tax receipts,
and income and wealth national accounts (including offshore leaks,
when available). This enterprise relies on the analysis of more
than 175 million data points on inequality.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<strong><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">Facundo
Alvaredo</span></strong><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">, coordinator of the report, said: <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<em><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">“This
enterprise relies, in one way or another, on the inequality
statistics </span></em><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<em><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">collected
in WID.world −The World Wealth and Income Database− </span></em><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<em><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">since its
inception as the World Top Incomes Database in 2011. </span></em><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<em><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">These
databases would not have been possible </span></em><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<em><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;">without
the cooperation of more than 100 researchers around the world.”</span></em><span style="color: #3c4858; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.5pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #096685; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 18.0pt;">World
Inequality Report 2018 Highlight</span><span style="color: #999999; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<a href="http://r.pseconomics.mediactive.mx/track/click/565et5hmnmdnd3d" target="_blank"><span style="text-decoration-line: none;"><img border="0" class="rnb-header-img" id="_x0000_i1025" src="https://r.pseconomics.mediactive.mx/7rr4z6dnd3e.png" style="border-radius: 5px; display: block; float: left;" width="590" /></span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="color: #096685; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 18.0pt;">More about
WID.world</span><span style="color: #999999; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<a href="http://r.pseconomics.mediactive.mx/track/click/fig8fgh8npnd3d" target="_blank"><span style="text-decoration-line: none;"><img alt="An international team" border="0" class="rnb-col-3-img" id="_x0000_i1026" src="https://r.pseconomics.mediactive.mx/7rr51jpnd3e.png" style="float: left; max-width: 170px; vertical-align: top;" width="170" /></span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="color: #666666; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;">WID.world relies on the combined
effort of an international network of over a hundred researchers
from all continents...</span><span style="color: #999999; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: white; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 9.0pt;"><a href="http://r.pseconomics.mediactive.mx/track/click/fig8fghb11nd3d" target="_blank"><span style="color: white; text-decoration-line: none;">Read More ›</span></a> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<a href="http://r.pseconomics.mediactive.mx/track/click/fig8fghdednd3d" target="_blank"><span style="text-decoration-line: none;"><img alt="Funding & Partners" border="0" class="rnb-col-3-img" id="_x0000_i1027" src="https://r.pseconomics.mediactive.mx/7rr53x1nd3e.png" style="float: left; max-width: 170px; vertical-align: top;" width="170" /></span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="color: #666666; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;">The World Wealth and Income
Database is funded by public and non-profit institutions...</span><span style="color: #999999; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: white; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 9.0pt;"><a href="http://r.pseconomics.mediactive.mx/track/click/fig8fghfrpnd3d" target="_blank"><span style="color: white; text-decoration-line: none;">Read More ›</span></a> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<a href="http://r.pseconomics.mediactive.mx/track/click/565et5hmbrpnd3d" target="_blank"><span style="text-decoration-line: none;"><img alt="wid.world, DATA" border="0" class="rnb-col-3-img" id="_x0000_i1028" src="https://r.pseconomics.mediactive.mx/7rr56adnd3e.png" style="float: left; max-width: 170px; vertical-align: top;" width="170" /></span></a><o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="color: #666666; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;">WID.world aims to provide open
access to the most extensive available database on the historical
evolution of the world distribution of income and wealth...</span><span style="color: #999999; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: white; font-family: "verdana" , sans-serif; font-size: 9.0pt;"><a href="http://r.pseconomics.mediactive.mx/track/click/565et5hme51nd3d" target="_blank"><span style="color: white; text-decoration-line: none;">Read More ›</span></a> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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peter van bergeijkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12443284253584365764noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4742680349497661277.post-16348773206790342702017-11-07T07:12:00.002+01:002017-11-07T07:12:35.732+01:00World Economics: Making Data Measurement Errors Transparent: The Case of the IMF<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-YCeS6APLMEA/WgFNnOp8pEI/AAAAAAAAGNg/DPcocc0jDcsKwlW5kIV9J2eZuYGcCZxMQCLcBGAs/s1600/world%2Beconomics%2Bjournal.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="131" data-original-width="841" height="49" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-YCeS6APLMEA/WgFNnOp8pEI/AAAAAAAAGNg/DPcocc0jDcsKwlW5kIV9J2eZuYGcCZxMQCLcBGAs/s320/world%2Beconomics%2Bjournal.PNG" width="320" /></a></div>
In 1950 Morgenstern pointed out that absolute precision and certainty are impossible in economic observations, but estimates are often hampered by a substantial degree of measurement error. Unlike the natural sciences, economists in general do not report measurement errors for the key concepts such as prices, value or production that it seeks to define, measure and explain. For most macroeconomic concepts two approaches are available: the Implicit Minimal Measurement Error and the Maximum Ratio.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-AZ9amVsbt5c/WgFOv0kzdXI/AAAAAAAAGNs/r4bCQu5zVsEmTGQu_ITN5UsBMiLaYe6DACLcBGAs/s1600/imf%2Berror.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="713" data-original-width="1203" height="189" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-AZ9amVsbt5c/WgFOv0kzdXI/AAAAAAAAGNs/r4bCQu5zVsEmTGQu_ITN5UsBMiLaYe6DACLcBGAs/s320/imf%2Berror.PNG" width="320" /></a></div>
Studying different vintages of the IMF World Economic Outlook data base it was found that the estimates on average have an implicit minimal measurement error of 4.3% and maximum ratio of 17.9%. An agenda is proposed for removing disincentives (creating incentives) for stakeholders (academics, data collectors and producers) since reporting measurement error will result in better research, better policy and ultimately better data.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.worldeconomics.com/Journal/Papers/Making%20Data%20Measurement%20Errors%20Transparent%20The%20Case%20of%20the%20IMF.details?ID=679" style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #009eb8; display: inline; font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light", HelveticaNeue-Light, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; outline: none; text-align: justify; text-decoration-line: none; transition: color 0.3s;">Making Data Measurement Errors Transparent: The Case of the IMF</a><span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light", HelveticaNeue-Light, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: justify;"> in </span><i style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: "Helvetica Neue Light", HelveticaNeue-Light, "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: justify;">World Economics</i>peter van bergeijkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12443284253584365764noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4742680349497661277.post-31448390103325319452017-10-20T16:31:00.002+02:002017-10-20T16:31:37.840+02:00Cryptocurrencies that are money<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 11.25pt; margin-right: 11.25pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9.0pt;"><a href="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3041906&partid=1193585&did=357826&eid=1541112" target="new"><b><span style="border: 1pt solid rgb(191, 208, 233); color: #003366; padding: 0cm; text-decoration-line: none;">"Central
Bank Cryptocurrencies"</span></b></a> <img alt="Free Download" border="0" id="_x0000_i1025" src="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/Images/free_pdf.gif" /> <br />
<a href="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/PIP_Journal.cfm?pip_jrnl=1464890&partid=1193585&did=357826&eid=1541112" target="pipInfo"><i><span style="color: #003366; text-decoration-line: none;">BIS Quarterly Review September 2017</span></i></a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 11.25pt; margin-right: 11.25pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9.0pt;"><a href="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=280113&partid=1193585&did=357826&eid=1541112" target="new"><!-- end title plus citation --><b><span style="color: #003366; text-decoration-line: none;">MORTEN L. BECH</span></b></a>, </span><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 7.5pt;">Bank for International
Settlements (BIS) - Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures</span><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9.0pt;"><br />
</span><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 7.5pt;">Email: <a href="mailto:morten.bech@bis.org"><span style="color: #003366; font-size: 9pt; text-decoration-line: none;">morten.bech@bis.org</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9.0pt;"><br />
<a href="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=2769605&partid=1193585&did=357826&eid=1541112" target="new"><b><span style="color: #003366; text-decoration-line: none;">RODNEY GARRATT</span></b></a>, </span><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 7.5pt;">University of California Santa Barbara</span><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9.0pt;"><br />
</span><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 7.5pt;">Email: <a href="mailto:garratt@ucsb.edu"><span style="color: #003366; font-size: 9pt; text-decoration-line: none;">garratt@ucsb.edu</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 11.25pt; margin-right: 11.25pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9.0pt;">New
cryptocurrencies are emerging almost daily, and many interested parties are
wondering whether central banks should issue their own versions. But what might
central bank cryptocurrencies (CBCCs) look like and would they be useful? This
feature provides a taxonomy of money that identifies two types of CBCC - retail
and wholesale - and differentiates them from other forms of central bank money
such as cash and reserves. It discusses the different characteristics of CBCCs
and compares them with existing payment options. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 11.25pt; margin-right: 11.25pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 11.25pt; margin-right: 11.25pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9.0pt;">Book pp. 73-74</span></div>
peter van bergeijkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12443284253584365764noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4742680349497661277.post-60109985492441082212017-08-21T08:00:00.002+02:002017-08-21T08:00:48.437+02:00SDGs and income inequality<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-tZBGMCRjV3Q/WZp2TkXsOVI/AAAAAAAAGI4/33n9kc6lovEQYfiTbn4UWwu29RhgLn-5gCLcBGAs/s1600/SDGs%2Band%2Bincome%2Binequality.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="475" data-original-width="324" height="320" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-tZBGMCRjV3Q/WZp2TkXsOVI/AAAAAAAAGI4/33n9kc6lovEQYfiTbn4UWwu29RhgLn-5gCLcBGAs/s320/SDGs%2Band%2Bincome%2Binequality.JPG" width="218" /></a></div>
The new global targets for development, the Sustainabe Development Goals, do not consider income inequality although the SDGs pay some lip service. This new and exciting edited volume published by Edward Elgar provides an overview of the state of the art, including the often forgotten issue of how to measure progress regarding a more inclusive development of Earthpeter van bergeijkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12443284253584365764noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4742680349497661277.post-12329379632423462422017-08-04T10:37:00.001+02:002017-08-04T10:37:29.848+02:00earnings inequality 1970-2015
<br />
<div style="margin: 0cm 11.25pt 0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><a href="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2964842&partid=1193585&did=339945&eid=1484412" target="new"><b><span style="border-image: none; border: 1pt solid rgb(191, 208, 233); color: #003366; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">"Global Earnings Inequality,
1970-2015"</span></b></a> <img alt="Fee Download" border="0" height="16" src="data:image/png;base64,R0lGODlhEAAQAJEAAP///957W8wzAAAAACH5BAkIAAAALAAAAAAQABAAAAI5hI95wt0KRJh0CiXRDTHlFT0LFzJGcI1ht6VGZrqoRjqnG5FsS7PrrCqlgC8djpijSCo4h1MEiQIKADs=" v:shapes="_x0000_i1025" width="16" /> <br />
<a href="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/PIP_Journal.cfm?pip_jrnl=223793&partid=1193585&did=339945&eid=1484412" target="pipInfo"><i><span style="color: #003366; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP12019</span></i></a></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0cm 11.25pt 0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><a href="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=2695105&partid=1193585&did=339945&eid=1484412" target="new"><b><span style="color: #003366; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">OLLE HAMMAR</span></b></a>, </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Uppsala
University - Department of Economics, Research Institute of Industrial
Economics (IFN)</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br />
</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Email: <a href="mailto:olle.hammar@nek.uu.se"><span style="color: #003366; font-size: 9pt; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">olle.hammar@nek.uu.se</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br />
<a href="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=1928035&partid=1193585&did=339945&eid=1484412" target="new"><b><span style="color: #003366; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">DANIEL WALDENSTRÖM</span></b></a>, </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Uppsala
University - Department of Economics, Research Institute of Industrial
Economics (IFN)</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br />
</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Email: <a href="mailto:daniel.waldenstrom@nek.uu.se"><span style="color: #003366; font-size: 9pt; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">daniel.waldenstrom@nek.uu.se</span></a></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0cm 11.25pt 0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">We estimate trends in global earnings dispersion
across occupational groups using a new database covering 66 developed and
developing countries between 1970 and 2015. Our main finding is that global
earnings inequality has declined, primarily during the 2000s, when the global
Gini coefficient dropped nearly 10 points and the earnings share of the world's
poorest half doubled. Decomposition analyses emphasize the role of income
convergence between poor and rich countries and that earnings have become more similar
within occupations in traded industries. Sensitivity checks show that the
results are robust to varying real exchange rates, inequality measures and
population definitions. </span></div>
<div style="margin: 0cm 11.25pt 0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="margin: 0cm 11.25pt 0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><strong><em><span style="color: magenta;">Book pp. 67-71</span></em></strong></span></div>
peter van bergeijkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12443284253584365764noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4742680349497661277.post-32849838389495484032017-08-04T10:35:00.001+02:002017-08-04T10:35:13.648+02:00Global factors and inflation
<br />
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">"Global
Inflation: The Role of Food, Housing and Energy Prices"</span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">
ECB Working Paper No. 2024</span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">
Contact: MILES PARKER</span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">
Reserve Bank of New Zealand</span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">
Email: </span><a href="mailto:miles.parker@bankofengland.co.uk"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri;">miles.parker@bankofengland.co.uk</span></a></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Auth-Page:
</span><a href="https://ssrn.com/author=1051383"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri;">https://ssrn.com/author=1051383</span></a></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Full
Text: </span><a href="https://ssrn.com/abstract=2923137"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri;">https://ssrn.com/abstract=2923137</span></a></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">ABSTRACT:
This paper studies the role of global factors in causing common movements in
consumer price inflation, with particular focus on the food, housing and energy
sub-indices. It uses a comprehensive dataset of 223 countries and territories
collected from national and international sources. Global factors explain a
large share of the variance of national inflation rates for advanced countries ─
and more generally those with greater GDP per capita, financial development and
central bank transparency ─ but not for middle and low income countries. </span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Common
factors explain a large share of the variance in food and energy prices.</span></span></div>
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: magenta; font-family: Calibri;"><strong><em>Book, pp. 29-32</em></strong></span></span></div>
peter van bergeijkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12443284253584365764noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4742680349497661277.post-58996812345611824992017-08-04T10:32:00.000+02:002017-08-04T10:32:20.012+02:00Global data shadow economy 1991-2015
<br />
<div style="margin: 0cm 11.25pt 0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><a href="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2965972&partid=1193585&did=340518&eid=382446" target="new"><b><span style="border-image: none; border: 1pt solid rgb(191, 208, 233); color: #003366; padding: 0cm; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">"Shadow Economies Around the
World: New Results for 158 Countries Over 1991-2015"</span></b></a> <img alt="Free Download" border="0" height="16" src="data:image/png;base64,R0lGODlhEAAQAKIAAP///9PT07+/v3NzsS8vXwAAAAAAAAAAACH5BAkIAAAALAAAAAAQABAAAAMzCLrcSzBGB8i4eFi3GwmDF3rTMzoa06GEejapSQGxssKtTNXVy/C3X86WKQIlSMhsCUgAADs=" v:shapes="_x0000_i1025" width="16" /> <br />
<a href="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/PIP_Journal.cfm?pip_jrnl=254971&partid=1193585&did=340518&eid=382446" target="pipInfo"><i><span style="color: #003366; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">CESifo Working Paper Series No. 6430</span></i></a></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0cm 11.25pt 0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><a href="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=1178065&partid=1193585&did=340518&eid=382446" target="new"><b><span style="color: #003366; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">LEANDRO MEDINA</span></b></a>, </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">George
Washington University - Department of Economics, International Monetary Fund
(IMF) - Western Hemisphere Department</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br />
</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Email: <a href="mailto:leandrom@gwu.edu"><span style="color: #003366; font-size: 9pt; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">leandrom@gwu.edu</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br />
<a href="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=169031&partid=1193585&did=340518&eid=382446" target="new"><b><span style="color: #003366; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">FRIEDRICH SCHNEIDER</span></b></a>, </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Johannes
Kepler University Linz - Department of Economics, CESifo (Center for Economic
Studies and Ifo Institute for Economic Research), Institute for the Study of
Labor (IZA)</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br />
</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 7.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Email: <a href="mailto:friedrich.schneider@jku.at"><span style="color: #003366; font-size: 9pt; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">friedrich.schneider@jku.at</span></a></span></div>
<br />
<div style="margin: 0cm 11.25pt 0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Using the MIMIC method, this paper is a first attempt
to estimate the size of the shadow economy of 158 countries over the period
1991 up to 2015. In addition to performing a variety of robustness tests, this
paper explicitly addresses endogeneity concerns to the use of GDP as cause and
indicator, by using the light intensity approach as an indicator variable as
proxy for the size of the economy. Results suggest that the average size of the
shadow economy of these 158 countries over 1991-2015 is 32.5% of official GDP,
which was 34.82% in 1991 and decreased to 30.66% in 2015. </span></div>
<div style="margin: 0cm 11.25pt 0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="margin: 0cm 11.25pt 0pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Verdana",sans-serif; font-size: 9pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="color: magenta;">Book p. 21</span></span></div>
peter van bergeijkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12443284253584365764noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4742680349497661277.post-43629007932435475192017-06-28T07:43:00.002+02:002017-06-28T07:43:23.824+02:00What is the World Bank Good for? Global Public Goods and Global Institutions<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 11.25pt; margin-right: 11.25pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;"><a href="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2988848&partid=1193585&did=345505&eid=1234474" target="new"><b><span style="border: 1pt solid rgb(191, 208, 233); color: #003366; padding: 0in; text-decoration-line: none;">"What
is the World Bank Good for? Global Public Goods and Global Institutions"</span></b></a> <img alt="Fee Download" border="0" id="_x0000_i1025" src="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/Images/fee_pdf.gif" /> <br />
<a href="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/PIP_Journal.cfm?pip_jrnl=223793&partid=1193585&did=345505&eid=1234474" target="pipInfo"><i><span style="color: #003366; text-decoration-line: none;">CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP12090</span></i></a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 11.25pt; margin-right: 11.25pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;"><a href="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=261718&partid=1193585&did=345505&eid=1234474" target="new"><!-- end title plus citation --><b><span style="color: #003366; text-decoration-line: none;">RAVI KANBUR</span></b></a>, </span><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 7.5pt;">Cornell University,
Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), IZA Institute of Labor Economics</span><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;"><br />
</span><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 7.5pt;">Email: <a href="mailto:sk145@cornell.edu"><span style="color: #003366; font-size: 9pt; text-decoration-line: none;">sk145@cornell.edu</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;">The
World Bank is in the doldrums, or worse. The Global Public Goods (GPGs)
argument is often put forward as a way of reviving and even rescuing an
institution whose financial base to support conventional sovereign loans is
receding sharply relative to needs and competition from other sources. The
World Bank does have certain advantages as an institution, which the global
community could use to address GPG issues. It has technical excellence and convening
power to help build consensus on a range of GPG issues, although this cannot be
fully realized without radical reform of its governance structures. It has
experience with managing concessional and grant resources, which will be
central to financing GPG mechanisms. And it also has experience with country
operations to implement the country specific dimensions of GPG mechanisms. That
is what the World Bank is good for now, three quarters of a century after its
founding <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 11.25pt; margin-right: 11.25pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;"><b><i><span style="color: purple;">Book: Chapter 13</span></i></b></span></div>
peter van bergeijkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12443284253584365764noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4742680349497661277.post-42761359723121941562017-01-06T13:22:00.002+01:002017-01-06T13:22:22.444+01:00Global Financial Safity Net 1960-2015<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 11.25pt; margin-right: 11.25pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;"><a href="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2887283&partid=1193585&did=323256&eid=841731" target="new"><b><span style="border: solid #BFD0E9 1.0pt; color: #003366; mso-border-alt: solid #BFD0E9 .25pt; padding: 0in; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">"What
Do We Know About the Global Financial Safety Net? A New Comprehensive Data
Set"</span></b></a> <img alt="Free Download" border="0" id="_x0000_i1025" src="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/Images/free_pdf.gif" /> <br />
<a href="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/PIP_Journal.cfm?pip_jrnl=254971&partid=1193585&did=323256&eid=841731" target="pipInfo"><i><span style="color: #003366; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">CESifo Working Paper Series No. 6184</span></i></a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 11.25pt; margin-right: 11.25pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;"><a href="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=2025627&partid=1193585&did=323256&eid=841731" target="new"><!-- end title plus citation --><b><span style="color: #003366; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">BEATRICE D. SCHEUBEL</span></b></a>, </span><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 7.5pt;">European Central
Bank (ECB), Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich - Center for Economic
Studies (CES)</span><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;"><br />
</span><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 7.5pt;">Email: <a href="mailto:scheubel@lmu.de"><span style="color: #003366; font-size: 9.0pt; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">scheubel@lmu.de</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;"><br />
<a href="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=335958&partid=1193585&did=323256&eid=841731" target="new"><b><span style="color: #003366; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">LIVIO STRACCA</span></b></a>, </span><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 7.5pt;">European Central Bank (ECB)</span><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;"><br />
</span><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 7.5pt;">Email: <a href="mailto:Livio.Stracca@ecb.europa.eu"><span style="color: #003366; font-size: 9.0pt; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">Livio.Stracca@ecb.europa.eu</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
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<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;">This
paper critically reviews the theoretical basis for the provision of the global
financial safety net (GFSN) and provide a comprehensive database covering four
elements of the GFSN (foreign exchange reserves, IMF financing, central bank
swap lines and regional financing arrangements) for over 150 countries in the
sample period 1960-2015. This paper also presents some key stylised facts
regarding the provision of GFSN financing and compares macroeconomic outcomes
in capital flow reversal episodes depending on how much GFSN financing was
available to countries. Finally, this paper concludes with some avenues for
further research on the possible evolution of the GFSN. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
peter van bergeijkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12443284253584365764noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4742680349497661277.post-83074731115801270172016-11-29T17:32:00.002+01:002016-11-29T17:32:20.135+01:00IMF data on the world economy: what a difference a data version makes<i>Data sources are regularly updated. Users typically assume that this means that new, more recent data are added and that errors are corrected. Newer data are better. But are they? And what are the implications for replication? This <a href="https://replicationnetwork.com/2016/11/29/van-bergeijk-what-a-difference-a-data-version-makes/" target="_blank">guest blog of the replication network</a> points out challenges and potential benefits of the existence of different data versions.</i><br />
<br />
Variations between the different vintages of a data set are not necessarily problematic. Variations provide insight in the measurement error in the data source. A better understanding of measurement error may be helpful for establishing why a replication fails or succeeds. Moreover, performing replications over many different vintages can support the robustness of the original study’s findings. If all the data versions arrive at the same conclusion, this strengthens confidence in the replication’s verdict on the original study (be it positive or negative). It is not the difference of the data version that matters, but the similarity of findings across different data versions. As a result, different data versions can be turned into an important asset for replication research.peter van bergeijkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12443284253584365764noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4742680349497661277.post-81610173729254841042016-10-31T07:03:00.002+01:002016-10-31T07:03:29.793+01:00Terror and World Economy<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 11.25pt; margin-right: 11.25pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;"><a href="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2850378&partid=1193585&did=315114&eid=851532" target="new"><b><span style="border: solid #BFD0E9 1.0pt; color: #003366; mso-border-alt: solid #BFD0E9 .25pt; padding: 0in; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">"Who
Has Terror Angst? Perceptions of the Effects of Terror on the World
Economy"</span></b></a> <img alt="Free Download" border="0" id="_x0000_i1025" src="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/Images/free_pdf.gif" /> <br />
<a href="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/PIP_Journal.cfm?pip_jrnl=254971&partid=1193585&did=315114&eid=851532" target="pipInfo"><i><span style="color: #003366; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">CESifo Working Paper Series No. 6049</span></i></a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;"><a href="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=2595545&partid=1193585&did=315114&eid=851532" target="new"><!-- end title plus citation --><b><span style="color: #003366; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">DORINE BOUMANS</span></b></a>, </span><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 7.5pt;">CESifo (Center for
Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)</span><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;"><br />
</span><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 7.5pt;">Email: <a href="mailto:boumans@ifo.de"><span style="color: #003366; font-size: 9.0pt; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">boumans@ifo.de</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;"><br />
<a href="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=2606126&partid=1193585&did=315114&eid=851532" target="new"><b><span style="color: #003366; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">JOHANNA GARNITZ</span></b></a>, </span><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 7.5pt;">CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo
Institute) - Ifo Institute</span><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;"><br />
</span><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 7.5pt;">Email: <a href="mailto:garnitz@ifo.de"><span style="color: #003366; font-size: 9.0pt; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">garnitz@ifo.de</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;"><br />
<a href="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=81455&partid=1193585&did=315114&eid=851532" target="new"><b><span style="color: #003366; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">GUNTHER G. SCHULZE</span></b></a>, </span><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 7.5pt;">University of Freiburg - Department of
Economics</span><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;"><br />
</span><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 7.5pt;">Email: <a href="mailto:Guenther.Schulze@vwl.uni-freiburg.de"><span style="color: #003366; font-size: 9.0pt; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">Guenther.Schulze@vwl.uni-freiburg.de</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
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<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;">We
examine sources of biased terror perceptions. In particular, we investigate how
international experts of the IFO World Economic Survey assess the effect of
terror on the world economy and the economy of their own country. The results
show that respondents from terror stricken countries have more favorable views
on the effect of terror on the word economy (but not on their own countries).
Male respondents and those from democratic and richer countries are likewise
more optimistic. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
peter van bergeijkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12443284253584365764noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4742680349497661277.post-61791804989680685432016-10-31T06:51:00.002+01:002016-10-31T06:51:36.013+01:00Global inflation<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 11.25pt; margin-right: 11.25pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;"><a href="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2841395&partid=1193585&did=315297&eid=991369" target="new"><b><span style="border: solid #BFD0E9 1.0pt; color: #003366; mso-border-alt: solid #BFD0E9 .25pt; padding: 0in; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">"Global
Inflation Forecasts"</span></b></a> <img alt="Free Download" border="0" id="_x0000_i1025" src="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/Images/free_pdf.gif" /> <br />
<a href="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/PIP_Journal.cfm?pip_jrnl=685688&partid=1193585&did=315297&eid=991369" target="pipInfo"><i><span style="color: #003366; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">BIS Working Paper No. 582</span></i></a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 11.25pt; margin-right: 11.25pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;"><a href="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=328987&partid=1193585&did=315297&eid=991369" target="new"><!-- end title plus citation --><b><span style="color: #003366; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">JONATHAN KEARNS</span></b></a>, </span><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 7.5pt;">Bank for
International Settlements (BIS) - Monetary and Economic Department</span><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;"><br />
</span><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 7.5pt;">Email: <a href="mailto:jonathan.kearns@bis.org"><span style="color: #003366; font-size: 9.0pt; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">jonathan.kearns@bis.org</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
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<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;">Inflation
co-moves across countries and several papers have shown that lags of this
common inflation can help to forecast country inflation. This paper constructs
forecasts of common (or 'global') inflation using survey forecasts of country
inflation. These forecasts of global inflation have predictive power for global
inflation at a medium horizon (12 months) but not at a longer horizon. Global
inflation forecasts, and forecast errors, are correlated with survey forecasts
and errors of oil and food prices, and global GDP growth, but not financial
variables. For some countries, forecasts of global inflation improve the
accuracy of forecasting regressions that include survey forecasts of country
inflation. In-sample fit and out-of-sample forecasting exercises suggest that
forecasts of global inflation generally contain more information for
forecasting country inflation than do lags of global inflation. However, for
most countries, lagged or forecast global inflation does not improve the
accuracy of survey forecasts of country inflation. Whatever information global
inflation may include about country inflation, for most countries it seems that
survey forecasts of country inflation have historically already incorporated
that information. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
peter van bergeijkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12443284253584365764noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4742680349497661277.post-87875352623896338512016-10-12T08:29:00.002+02:002016-10-12T08:29:43.885+02:00Secular stagnation (or not?)<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Vn-thLYSZMs/V_3S9ekgCfI/AAAAAAAAF58/eVJVls2nvDQgvnDZ4ll0a84vrYNa2jsjACLcB/s1600/secular%2Bstagnation%2B1.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="219" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Vn-thLYSZMs/V_3S9ekgCfI/AAAAAAAAF58/eVJVls2nvDQgvnDZ4ll0a84vrYNa2jsjACLcB/s320/secular%2Bstagnation%2B1.JPG" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: blue;">Fig 1 World per head income <br />Regression based on recent data</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
One item for heated debate amongst economists is the so-called secular stagnation. The economics tribe seems to agree on the fact that world growth is at a lower growth trajectory and that a substantial output.<br />
Figure 1 provides some data for Earth's per capita income in constant prices. The figure seems to support the concensus view. A simple linear trend has been added to recent data up to but not including the great recession. The drop in output due to the financial crisis and the departure from trend are evident: Earth is in a serious depression.<br />
Figure 2, however, provides an alternative longer run perspective that questions this concensus of economists.<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-kTeuIjh9pBc/V_3S9WXMmRI/AAAAAAAAF54/eoFsLQbc18gO27HlTrle5myo6FeG5A6yQCLcB/s1600/secular%2Bstagnation%2B2.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="230" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-kTeuIjh9pBc/V_3S9WXMmRI/AAAAAAAAF54/eoFsLQbc18gO27HlTrle5myo6FeG5A6yQCLcB/s320/secular%2Bstagnation%2B2.JPG" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: blue;">Fig. 2 World income per head<br />Regression based on 1960-2007 data</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
In Figure 2 we use the same data (source: World Development Indicators), but extend the period of observation (1960 is earliest reported number for world per capita GDP in the WDI). Now the picture changes quite dramatically. Yes the growth rate of per capita income has slowed down, but it is still above long term trend. Clearly the consensus view is blurred by the perspective of the recent past (the decade before the Great Recession) and by the fact that the advanced economies experienced a bad time.peter van bergeijkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12443284253584365764noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4742680349497661277.post-90135737659803301612016-09-30T15:20:00.000+02:002016-09-30T15:20:14.814+02:00World debt sustainability: is the IMF's optimism justified<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-9JntPAFoiks/V-5ho7hZFuI/AAAAAAAAF3c/TLb4rfPG1qkEQOyuPspAwAeqrHeDl1NEwCLcB/s1600/Public%2Bdebt%2Bin%2Bpercent%2Bof%2BGPP.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="223" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-9JntPAFoiks/V-5ho7hZFuI/AAAAAAAAF3c/TLb4rfPG1qkEQOyuPspAwAeqrHeDl1NEwCLcB/s320/Public%2Bdebt%2Bin%2Bpercent%2Bof%2BGPP.JPG" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: blue;">Public debt to GPP: predicted sustainability in 2012-2014</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-XKs8SskNlUQ/V-5iAUNyCaI/AAAAAAAAF3g/fCfpjdCajKoslvZzLppGfz9q6VKn_RLLgCLcB/s1600/imw%2Bweo%2Bforecasts%2B.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="289" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-XKs8SskNlUQ/V-5iAUNyCaI/AAAAAAAAF3g/fCfpjdCajKoslvZzLppGfz9q6VKn_RLLgCLcB/s320/imw%2Bweo%2Bforecasts%2B.JPG" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="color: blue;">Continues upwards shifts in debt since 2013</span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
The 2008/9 financial crisis led to a hick-up in public debt to GPP ratio's, but for long IMF predicted that this was not very problematic as the forecasts of the IMF predicted a return to the year 2000 levels as illustrated in the Figure at the top left for the IMF's April <i>World Economic Outlook</i> published in 2012, 2013 and 2014. Actually, this has always been the IMF view since it started to publish world public debt to GPP ratio's.<br />
Since 2014 this picture changed fundamentally, but not in the sense that the IMF is still predicting that the debt is still sustainable at the. end of the forecasting period as it is on a downward trend. The difference is that each recent update shows that this downward trajectory is shifting upward, demonstrating that each and every IMF forecast in the last five years has been too optimistic. This implies that serious questions arise about the sustainability of public debt at the world level.<br />
.peter van bergeijkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12443284253584365764noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4742680349497661277.post-11032770470179368882016-07-29T22:54:00.001+02:002016-07-29T22:54:16.705+02:00Toward a New Chapter in Macroeconomics – Literally by Robert Scott GasslerText <a href="http://ase.tufts.edu/gdae/Pubs/te/GasslerTowardNewChapterInMacroeconomics.pdf" target="_blank">here</a><br />
<br />
<b>Summary</b><br />
Intermediate macroeconomics textbooks (Blanchard, 2003, for example) have started to expand their
treatment of growth and integrate it a bit more into the model, if only by putting the chapter in the middle and not at
the end. Jones and Burda and Wyploz even write their books backwards from what it would have been in the 1960s:
economic growth, then Aggregate-Supply-Aggregate-Demand, then the Keynesian model, then monetary theory,
then the ISLM model, and so forth.
The economy is, however, embedded in the ecological system, so our models of the economy need to be
embedded in models of the ecological system as well. Before the chapter on economic growth, there needs to be one
on the environment in which economic activity takes place. The limits to growth, both from depleting resources and
from carbon emissions, should be addressed early. To the circular flow, for example, there need to be added a source
and a sink; the flow comes from somewhere and goes to somewhere.
I attempt to outline such a chapter. I define a variable YG, which depends not only on the usual factors of
production but especially on the quantity of depletable resources used and is related to the quantity of emissions in
the environment from the past. There is a level YG* beyond which the environment of the planet is irreversibly
damaged. Note that Mother Nature does not care about prices or reductions in per capita GDP.
I also indicate how this chapter affects the rest of a typical macroeconomics textbook. Jonathan Harris’s
classification of consumption and other variables into non-durable, human-capital intensive, energy-intensive, etc.,
would appear in this chapter and in the ones on measurement and the components of aggregate demand. But for the
moment it should be enough to put them in this new chapter. That way it can be slipped into the typical
macroeconomics course without requiring very much revision of the instructor’s lecture notes.
This chapter should be compatible with whatever approach is used in the textbook: New Classical, New
Keynesian, Post-Keynesian, or radical, though perhaps with a few revisions here and there. For example, a New
Classical model would have a vertical Aggregate Supply curve, a New Keynesian model would use a partly
horizontal one, and a radical textbook would omit the part on Aggregate Supply and Aggregate Demand.
Ideally we would rewrite macroeconomics textbooks completely. In the meantime, we can at least
supplement them in a useful waypeter van bergeijkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12443284253584365764noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4742680349497661277.post-29314602964781746252016-06-23T10:54:00.002+02:002016-06-23T10:54:14.152+02:00Global energy subsidies<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 11.25pt; margin-right: 11.25pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "verdana" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;"><a href="http://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2766224&partid=1193585&did=297774&eid=1366417" target="new"><b><span style="border: solid #bfd0e9 1.0pt; color: #003366; padding: 0in; text-decoration: none;">"How
Large are Global Energy Subsidies?"</span></b></a> <img alt="Free Download" border="0" id="_x0000_i1025" src="https://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/Images/free_pdf.gif" /> <br />
<a href="http://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/PIP_Journal.cfm?pip_jrnl=254971&partid=1193585&did=297774&eid=1366417" target="pipInfo"><i><span style="color: #003366; text-decoration: none;">CESifo Working Paper Series No. 5814</span></i></a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;"><a href="http://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=190854&partid=1193585&did=297774&eid=1366417" target="new"><!-- end title plus citation --><b><span style="color: #003366; text-decoration: none;">DAVID P. COADY</span></b></a>, </span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 7.5pt;">International
Monetary Fund (IMF)</span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;"><br />
</span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 7.5pt;">Email: <a href="mailto:dcoady@imf.org"><span style="color: #003366; font-size: 9.0pt; text-decoration: none;">dcoady@imf.org</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;"><br />
<a href="http://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=1694241&partid=1193585&did=297774&eid=1366417" target="new"><b><span style="color: #003366; text-decoration: none;">IAN PARRY</span></b></a>, </span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 7.5pt;">International Monetary Fund (IMF)</span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;"><br />
</span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 7.5pt;">Email: <a href="mailto:iparry@imf.org"><span style="color: #003366; font-size: 9.0pt; text-decoration: none;">iparry@imf.org</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;"><br />
<a href="http://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=2407091&partid=1193585&did=297774&eid=1366417" target="new"><b><span style="color: #003366; text-decoration: none;">LOUIS SEARS</span></b></a>, </span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 7.5pt;">International Monetary Fund (IMF)</span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;"><br />
</span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 7.5pt;">Email: <a href="mailto:lsears@imf.org"><span style="color: #003366; font-size: 9.0pt; text-decoration: none;">lsears@imf.org</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;"><br />
<a href="http://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=547551&partid=1193585&did=297774&eid=1366417" target="new"><b><span style="color: #003366; text-decoration: none;">BAOPING SHANG</span></b></a>, </span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 7.5pt;">International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Fiscal
Affairs Department</span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;"><br />
</span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 7.5pt;">Email: <a href="mailto:bshang@sphereinstitute.org"><span style="color: #003366; font-size: 9.0pt; text-decoration: none;">bshang@sphereinstitute.org</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "verdana" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
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<span style="font-family: "verdana" , "sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;">This
paper estimates fossil fuel subsidies and the economic and environmental
benefits from reforming them, focusing mostly on a broad notion of subsidies
arising when consumer prices are below supply costs plus environmental costs
and general consumption taxes. Subsidies are $4.9 trillion worldwide in 2013
and $5.3 trillion in 2015 (6.5 percent of global GDP in both years).
Undercharging for global warming accounts for 22 percent of the subsidy in
2013, air pollution 46 percent, broader vehicle externalities 13 percent,
supply costs 11 percent, and general consumer taxes 8 percent. China was the
biggest subsidizer in 2013 ($1.8 trillion), followed by the United States ($0.6
trillion), and Russia, the European Union, and India (each with about $0.3
trillion). Eliminating subsidies would have reduced carbon emissions in 2013 by
21 percent and fossil fuel air pollution deaths 55 percent, while raising
revenue of 4 percent, and social welfare by 2.2 percent, of global GDP. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
peter van bergeijkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12443284253584365764noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4742680349497661277.post-72339363157254969902016-04-17T08:30:00.005+02:002016-04-17T08:30:51.426+02:00Historical perspective on global cycles<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-se3Q2oMY1Jg/VxMtjrAEB2I/AAAAAAAAFwc/8zMbfwCOBoUVXPz_opnVesmfNil2FGKLQCLcB/s1600/global%2Bcapital.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="252" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-se3Q2oMY1Jg/VxMtjrAEB2I/AAAAAAAAFwc/8zMbfwCOBoUVXPz_opnVesmfNil2FGKLQCLcB/s400/global%2Bcapital.JPG" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;"><b><br /></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 11.25pt; margin-right: 11.25pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;"><b><span style="border: solid #BFD0E9 1.0pt; color: #003366; mso-border-alt: solid #BFD0E9 .25pt; padding: 0in; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;"><a href="http://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2744551&partid=1193585&did=291947&eid=1674285" target="new">"Global
Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015"</a></span></b> <img alt="Free Download" border="0" id="_x0000_i1025" src="http://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/Images/free_pdf.gif" /> <br />
<a href="http://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/PIP_Journal.cfm?pip_jrnl=254971&partid=1193585&did=291947&eid=1674285" target="pipInfo"><i><span style="color: #003366; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">CESifo Working Paper Series No. 5737</span></i></a><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: 11.25pt; margin-right: 11.25pt; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;"><a href="http://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=2196598&partid=1193585&did=291947&eid=1674285" target="new"><!-- end title plus citation --><b><span style="color: #003366; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">CARMEN M. REINHART</span></b></a>, </span><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 7.5pt;">Harvard University -
Center for Business and Government</span><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;"><br />
</span><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 7.5pt;">Email: <a href="mailto:carmen_reinhart@harvard.edu"><span style="color: #003366; font-size: 9.0pt; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">carmen_reinhart@harvard.edu</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;"><br />
<a href="http://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=224845&partid=1193585&did=291947&eid=1674285" target="new"><b><span style="color: #003366; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">VINCENT R. REINHART</span></b></a>, </span><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 7.5pt;">American Enterprise Institute (AEI)</span><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;"><br />
</span><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 7.5pt;">Email: <a href="mailto:vincent.reinhart@aei.org"><span style="color: #003366; font-size: 9.0pt; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">vincent.reinhart@aei.org</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;"><br />
<a href="http://hq.ssrn.com/Journals/RedirectClick.cfm?url=http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=1225214&partid=1193585&did=291947&eid=1674285" target="new"><b><span style="color: #003366; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">CHRISTOPH TREBESCH</span></b></a>, </span><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 7.5pt;">Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich,
CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)</span><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;"><br />
</span><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 7.5pt;">Email: <a href="mailto:christoph.trebesch@lmu.de"><span style="color: #003366; font-size: 9.0pt; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">christoph.trebesch@lmu.de</span></a></span><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
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<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 9.0pt;">Capital
flow and commodity cycles have long been connected with economic crises. Sparse
historical data, however, has made it difficult to connect their timing. We
date turning points in global capital flows and commodity prices across two
centuries and provide estimates from alternative data sources. We then document
a strong overlap between the ebb and flow of financial capital, the commodity
price super-cycle, and sovereign defaults since 1815. The results have
implications for today, as many emerging markets are facing a double bust in
capital inflows and commodity prices, making them vulnerable to crises. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
peter van bergeijkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12443284253584365764noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4742680349497661277.post-74506742183606015452015-12-28T09:12:00.003+01:002015-12-28T09:12:37.701+01:00Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planetThe relatively stable, 11,700-year-long Holocene epoch is the only state of the Earth System (ES) that we know for certain can support contemporary human societies. There is increasing evidence that human activities are affecting ES functioning to a degree that threatens the resilience of the ES—its ability to persist in a Holocene-like state in the face of increasing human pressures and shocks. The Planetary Boundary (PB) framework is based on critical processes that regulate ES functioning. By combining improved scientific understanding of ES functioning with the precautionary principle, the PB framework identifies levels of anthropogenic perturbations below which the risk of destabilization of the ES is likely to remain low—a “safe operating space” for global societal development. A zone of uncertainty for each PB highlights the area of increasing risk. The current level of anthropogenic impact on the ES, and thus the risk to the stability of the ES, is assessed by comparison with the proposed PB<br />
<br />
Steffen et al Science 2015 <a href="http://www.sciencemag.org/content/347/6223/1259855.short">http://www.sciencemag.org/content/347/6223/1259855.short</a>peter van bergeijkhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12443284253584365764noreply@blogger.com0